When a quote stops existing before you accept it
A quote is not a contract until it is accepted, so it can move or vanish in the seconds between the slip and the confirmation. This page counts the three outcomes and shows where each one is concentrated.
- attempts
- 200
- quoted
- 148
- repriced
- 34
- refused
- 18
A quoted price exists only until it is accepted. On the samples, of 200 attempts at one bet 148 were quoted and placed, 34 were repriced in the seconds before acceptance and 18 were refused outright. The refusals were concentrated in the largest stake band: 14 of the 18, or 77.8%.
Three outcomes, one window
The gap between seeing a quote and accepting it is small for the reader and busy for the operator: the market can move, the stake can cross a band boundary when a reader edits the slip, and a price that was offered can be withdrawn. The three outcomes are worth separating because they call for different things from the reader, and only one of them is a market movement.
| Outcome | Attempts | Share | What it usually is |
|---|---|---|---|
| quoted and placed at the quoted price | 148 | 74.0% | the ordinary case |
| repriced before acceptance | 34 | 17.0% | a market move or a stake change crossing a band |
| refused | 18 | 9.0% | a size the operator will not write at that price |
| 200 attempts | 200 | 100.0% | three outcomes, one per attempt |
Where the refusals sit
A refusal is not random, and on the samples it is a function of size. The reason is the one the stake-banded page describes from the other side: a price quoted for a small stake carries a small exposure, and the same price at a large stake is a much bigger one, so the larger the stake the more often the operator declines to write it.
- Was there a confirmation screen with a price on it, or did the slip close without one?
- Did the price move, or did the bet disappear, which are a repricing and a refusal respectively?
- Was the stake above the band's ceiling when the size was the thing refused?
- Is there any record of the attempted price, or only of the placed bets?
- Did the market price on the selection move at the same time, which would make it a market event rather than a refusal?