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Your Price / Check your quote
Four numbers, three derivations
How to check your own quote in four numbers
The check is small enough to do on a phone before confirming, and it needs nothing the receipt does not already carry. Four numbers, any three of which produce the fourth, and one comparison against the market price.
Desk spec
- numbers needed
- 4
- taken to check
- 1.5 minutes
- minimum to re-derive
- 3 of 4
- sample reader
- 12 bets a month
the market priceThe price shown beside a selection before an account is considered. On the samples it is 1.90 on every screen, and it is the price the receipt is measured against.
the quoteThe price your own account is offered. Across 120 accounts on one selection it ran from 1.88 to 2.00, a spread of 6.4%, and 42 of the 120 accounts were offered the market price exactly.
the receiptThe price at the moment you accept governs the bet. Of 100 disputed quotes the receipt price governed 100 and the headline price governed none of them.
Direct answerA receipt carries four numbers - the quoted price, the stake, the potential return and the reference - and any three of them derive the fourth, so the check is one multiplication and one comparison. On the samples the check takes about 1.5 minutes and the four numbers are enough to tell a quoted price from a displayed one.
The four numbers
The value of the check is that it is arithmetic rather than argument: if the price and the stake on the receipt multiply to the return on the receipt, the three agree, and if they do not, one of them was not what the reader thought. The reference is what makes the check hold afterwards rather than only at the moment.
Sample J - the four numbers and how three derive the fourth
| Number | Example | Derived from the other three by |
|---|
| the quoted price | 1.88 | return divided by stake: 47.00 / 25.00 = 1.88 |
| the stake | 25.00 | return divided by price: 47.00 / 1.88 = 25.00 |
| the potential return | 47.00 | price multiplied by stake: 1.88 x 25.00 = 47.00 |
| the reference | a code, not a number | nothing, which is why it is the one worth keeping |
| four numbers | - | any three produce the fourth |
sample J - the check, done
receipt: price 1.88, stake 25.00, return 47.00
step 1 price x stake = 1.88 x 25.00 = 47.00 and it matches
step 2 the market price on the selection was 1.90
so the quoted price is 1.88 / 1.90 - 1 = -1.053% away from it
step 3 the difference in money = 25.00 x (1.90 - 1.88) = 0.50
step 4 the reference on the receipt is the only part of this that will
still exist in a month, so it is the number to write down
cost of the check: 1.5 minutes, against a 0.50 difference on this bet
and across a reader's 12 bets a month, 300.00 of turnover,
the sample's 1.24% mean advantage is 3.72 of potential return.
What the check can and cannot establish
It establishes whether the receipt is internally consistent and how far the price sits from the market price. It cannot establish why the price differs, because the cause is not on the receipt: the stake band, the tier, a capped price and a chosen price all produce the same single line.
sample J - reading four numbers as one of four causes
no cause is printed on the receipt, so the cause is inferred from the check:
the price moves with the stake and not with the account -> the stake band
the price holds across selections at a fixed stake -> the account tier
a maximum stake appears beside the price -> a capped price
the reader was shown more than one price to pick from -> the chosen price
and the four causes account for all 120 quotes in sample B
(46 + 31 + 27 + 16 = 120), so the inference is exhaustive on the samples:
every gap the check finds belongs to one of four mechanisms, and the
reader can only move the first and the fourth of them.
Check a receipt before you confirm the next bet
- Multiply the price by the stake and compare it with the return.
- Read the market price on the selection and compare it with the quoted price.
- Multiply any difference by the stake, so the size of the gap is a number.
- Keep the reference, since it is the only part that outlives the session.
- Repeat on the next five bets, and note whether the gap is stable or occasional.
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